Gavekal Capital: 1Q 2015: Winners and Losers

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

1Q 2015: Winners and Losers

As we mark the passage of the first quarter, we thought it useful to get our bearings with a quick, general summary of what has worked (or not) so far this year.  Per usual, the performance referenced below is on an apples-to-apples USD basis, and equally weighted to avoid any distortions caused by differences in market cap.

By country, equity performance in Russia has been the strongest so far (up nearly 22%) in 2015 while Greek stocks are firmly in bear market territory, having fallen nearly 25% in the first quarter:

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By sector in the MSCI ACWI, Health Care is the runaway leader, having gained nearly twice as much compared to the closest runner-up, Information Technology.  Meanwhile, stocks in the Energy and Utilities sectors are in the red so far this year:

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Looking at just the Developed world performance, Health Care sector leadership is even more pronounced:

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And, while the Health Care outperformance trend holds true for MSCI North America and MSCI Pacific, the leading sector in MSCI Europe has been Consumer Discretionary:

MSCI Europe
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MSCI North America
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MSCI Pacific
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Emerging market equities have struggled across a wider range of sectors, with nearly half in negative territory year to date:

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By region, Energy in MSCI EMEA has actually been the best performer so far in 2015:

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Every sector in MSCI Latin America is negative, with Health Care down more than 30% ytd:

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MSCI Emerging Asia, by contrast, has just one sector in negative territory for the year so far:

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